Results tagged ‘ Matsuzaka ’
Yankees, Red Sox, Rays Hot Stove Analysis
Most sports news venues have at least one (hundred) article(s) on the following theme:
“Yankees spending spree makes them a bona-fide contender in 2009!” The signings of CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Mark Teixeira certainly were headline-grabbing, and the signing of OBP machine Nick Swisher, only a couple of years removed from a 40-homer season, has been overlooked
In addition, it now seems that the Boston Red Sox have inherited the expectation of playoff “birthright” that was the Yankees’ in the 1990′s, despite an increasingly aging roster that showed signs of declining performance for several of their biggest stars in 2008.
Here is an analysis of how the pitching stacks up for the top three teams in the AL East. The Orioles will stink as usual, and the Blue Jays have lost three of their best four starting pitchers to injury or free agency for 2009.
The spreadsheet below is a breakdown of the average of all three rotations’ stats for the last three years, applied to a point system (1 to 15, ranked against each other and nobody else). The point system includes “ingangible” modifiers, and is intended to compare the complete rotation of these three teams against each other (not the entire league). Lowest collective score is best.
AL East.xls
Boston Red Sox:
Rotation: Rotation Score: 228
Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, Brad Penny
Projected Batting order (if I were running the show)
CF Jacoby Ellsbury
2B Dustin Pedroia
DH David Ortiz
1B Kevin Youkilis
RF J.D. Drew
LF Jason Bay
3B Mike Lowell
SS Jed Lowrie / Julio Lugo
C Jason Varitek
Key Signings (as of 12/29/2008): SP Brad Penny. Lost: Manny Ramirez
The
Red Sox did a smart thing acquiring Jason Bay for Manny Ramirez. Bay
will never be the “greatest right-handed hitter ever”, but he is young,
he plays hard, and he can hit. The incentive of playing a
full season for a contender will be huge for him. Actually, playing for a
team that’s not one of the worst in the majors will be an incentive enough to play at his best.
Big questions about the lineup include:
1) Who is playing Short Stop? Can’t the Sox find somebody good?
2) Will Ellsbury shake the sophomore jinx, or was 2008 more in line of the type of player he is?
3) Can Ortiz, Lowell, Drew, and Beckett stay healthy for a full season together?
4) Is Dustin Pedroia for real?
5) Can Brad Penny resurrect his career?
Nice
segue. Two season ago, Brad Penny was the NL starter in the All Star
Game. His career ERA is a very nice 4.06, and before 2008 he struck
out a respectable 6-1/2 batters per nine innings. Then he fell apart. Injury?
Mental issues? Here we have one of the most dependable pitchers in the past
nine seasons who was demoted to the minor leagues just one season removed
from his All-Star start. What?
I am thinking Brad Penny
bounces back, and this ends up looking like the genius signing of the Hot Stove
Season. He’s been playing this game too long to just roll over and
die, and he is still only 30 years old (prime pitching age!). Low-Risk, High, high, high reward. Clay Buchholz
needs another season to figure out his command issues anyway.
Bounce him between AAA and the majors for spot-starts and take the
pressure off.
On paper, the Red Sox have a more
solid rotation than the Yankees. In actuality, they have injury-prone
and slightly-overrated “ace” Beckett (more on that later), a
one-season (so far) wonder in Lester, Wakefield – a 42 year-old
knuckleballer, Penny, and Matsuzaka, a power pitcher who threw almost
as many walks in 2008 as Mussina, James Shields, and Andy Sonnanstine did in
609 innings of COMBINED work.
Beckett: Has anybody noticed
that he seems to alternate Ace-Years and Mid-Rotation-Years? He’s made
a name pitching in big spots, but his overall numbers are not worthy of
the “Ace” moniker. A career ERA of 3.78 does not scream Cooperstown.
Yet how many Bostonians would scream from the rooftop that Beckett is a
MUCH better pitcher than, say, Roy Oswalt or Roy Halladay. News flash:
Career ERAs for Oswalt and Halladay are 3.13 and 3.52. Those are true aces that have the misfortune of playing in mid-market areas where media frenzy is less common.
Lester
has to prove he can do 2008 all over again. Great story, great
results, but Jon Lester before his illness was not an All-Star quality
pitcher or even prospect. I hope for his sake he continues his
dominance, but the questions are there.
Overall, the Red Sox
lineup is less fluid than the Yankees, but after several years of
making no major impact moves (Ramirez for Bay was not one), age and
complacency are about to catch up with Boston, as it did in New York
over the past two years. Another segue.
NY YANKEES:
Rotation: Rotation Score: 196
CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Chien-Ming Wang, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes
Projected Batting order (if I were running the show)
CF Johnny Damon
SS Derek Jeter
1B Mark Teixiera
3B Alex Rodriguez (Oh, the RBI opportunities)
DH Hideki Matsui
RF Nick Swisher (OBP sets up Nady nicely)
LF Xavier Nady
C Jorge Posada (Loyalty to fading C keeps him out of 9 spot)
2B Robinson Cano
Yankee’s Key Signings (as of 12/29/2008): SP CC Sabathia, SP A.J. Burnett, 1B Mark Teixiera, 1B/OF Nick Swisher. Also should receive a healthy Chien-Ming Wang and DH Hideki Matsui back from DL. Lost: SP Mike Mussina, SP Andy Pettitte, 1B Jason Giambi, OF Bobby Abreu.
The wow-factor of signing the first three is unmeasurable. But in reality there is little reason to expect huge improvement in the number of wins from 2008 to 2009. Mike Mussina was a 20-game winner. No doubt, Sabathia is one of the best pitchers in baseball, but the odds of him matching or exceeding Mussina’s 2008 win total is even money, at best. Exchanging Pettitte for Burnett is also a one-for-one. You are trading an aging but solid control pitcher for an injury-prone power pitcher poised just over the peak of his career. If Burnett stays healthy, this exchange is a win. If not, this is an expensive way to not improve. It will be nice to have Wang back.
Teixiera is a great long-term signing. But in the short-term, is he really so much better than Giambi offensively that New York can expect a significant win increase? Giambi still hit 32 HR last year in less than 460 AB, which is right in line with every healthy season he’s had since 1999. Teixeira will net additional RBI, but will tally 75 more AB and adds no speed threat. As shown in a previous entry, defense is an overrated commodity in baseball, where championships are concerned. Teixiera is amazing, but to expect an automatic World Series bid because of his addition is absurd.
Swisher is a good signing, but he does not replace Bobby Abreu, who has been one of the most quietly consistent hitters in the game over the past five years.
It still should concern Yankee’s fans that the 4 and 5 starters in their rotation have next to no starting experience in the majors. Chamberlain and Hughes are good prospects, but nothing more at this point. Their value has been over-inflated by fans and media by the pinstripes on their uniform. Their inexperience offsets the nice signings of Sabathia and Burnett, and until the two young-uns can prove A) They can stay healthy and pitch 180+ innings, and B) they can pitch up to their hype, they are two huge question-marks at the end of a thin rotation. Chamberlain looks great as a reliever, but 4 out of 5 dentists would prefer David Price as a starter.
Segue number three!
Tampa Bay Rays:
Rotation: Rotation Score: 153
James Shields, Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza, David Price, Andy Sonnanstine
Projected Batting order (if I were running the show)
2B Akinori Iwamura
CF B.J. Upton
1B Carlos Pena
3B Evan Longoria
LF Carl Crawford
RF Matt Joyce
DH Gabe Gross
C Dioner Navarro
SS Jason Bartlett
Key Signings (as of 12/29/2008): RF Matt Joyce. Lost: Cliff Floyd
The Rays were the “surprise” team of 2008. Many expected them to be competitive, and possibly contend in 2009 or 2010, but few if any authorities tabbed them as World Series participants before the season began.
The Rays will be better in 2009, and by using the best means available – allowing their already ridiculously talented but young roster to mature another year.
Joyce is an overlooked but nice signing. He will not hit for average, but in limited time as a rookie last season (242 AB), he clonked 12 homers with a .831 OPS while platooning with Gary Sheffield. As a full-time player, there’s no reason his minor league numbers cannot translate to 25 HR, albiet with an on-base % of .320 at best. He seems to be a very solid 6- or 7-hitter in the mold of Luke Scott or Jayson Werth. The only real concern should be having too many BA sinkholes (Joyce, Gross, Pena) in the lineup. These should be offset by the superstars.
Speaking of superstars (Upton, Crawford, and Longoria), everybody who looks at historical stats can predict a significant improvement from them in 2009. Longoria was fantastic as a rookie, but this guy has no talent ceiling. Upton and Crawford both suffered poor 2008 seasons (for them), especially in power and base running due to nagging injuries. Health alone, plus another year of experience for “E-Long” should prop up the offense. Defense will be improved with Joyce or Gross in Right Field full-time, but who cares?
None of this really matters, because the Rays have one of the top starting rotations in the majors.
Check this out. Name the pitcher:
Age: 25
IP: 193.1
W/L: 13-9
ERA: 4.38
K: 124
BB: 37
Who wouldn’t want this guy as the #3 or #4 starter on their club? But alas, he is the overlooked member of the Rays’ staff, their back-of-the-rotation guy, Andy Sonnanstine. Also, those numbers are vastly improved over his 2007 Rookie stats. In AA and AAA, he never posted a season’s ERA over 2.67 (185 IP in AA, 2006). So this guy can be expected to improve even more. Sub-4.00 ERA and 15 wins in 2009 is not unreasonable, due to a BB/9 ratio that is only rivalled by the afore-mentioned Mussina- and Maddux-types of the world. Not too shabby for a fifth starter.
But enough gushing about their number five pitcher. Garza wields a sub-4.00 ERA and should improve. Kazmir is one of the dominant power pitchers in baseball: 10th in the AL in K’s despite pitching only 152 innings due to an injury in 2008. Shields is one of the most quietly controlled and dependable starters in all of baseball (6th in the AL with 6.5 IP per start). And then there’s the most-hyped and most-talented pitching prospect since Tim Lincecum (or even before?) – David Price.
Here are their ages: 23, 24, 25, 25, 27. Kazmir is 25 and has five years of MLB experience already! Most major league pitchers seem to hit their prime between the ages of 28 and 32. So all five should expect slight (or major) improvements in their game.
The Rays pitching staff is too talented, too young, and too solid for them to be overlooked.
The point of this blog is to show that despite the Yankees’ spending spree and the Red Sox media machine, the Rays are still the team to beat in the AL East in 2009. Fans should resist the temptation to jump to conclusions over a few high-profile signings or by a history of recent success in the face of age and injury.
AL East Prediction 2009:
1. TB Rays
2. NY Yankees
3. BOS Red Sox
4. TOR Blue Jays
5. BAL Orioles
P.S. No I did not add the “modifiers” in the spreadsheet to favor the Rays. The Rays had the best score even without the modifiers, but players like Price, Hughes, Buchholz, and Kennedy had ridiculously small scores due to body-of-work.
Drafting Pitchers
In Fantasy Baseball, managers adopt different strategies to compete in their leagues. One strategy which has never seemed successful to me is to load up on good starting pitching, either by drafting three or four in the first seven rounds of the draft, or by holding on to a large number of quality pitchers in long-term keeper drafts.
By nature, pitching is dependent on calculated stats instead of accumulated stats. Calculated pitching stats include Earned Run Average (ERA), strikeouts per nine innings pitched (K/9), and Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched (WHIP) in most of my leagues. Other stat categories, such as Wins earned, Losses earned, and Saves are largely controlled by the team behind the pitcher. Every fantasy team needs at least one closer, so I am throwing Saves out of this analysis. Forget them. Wins and Losses seem almost random. In 2005, Roger Clemens threw over 210 innings, with an ERA of 1.87. He earned 13 Wins due to lack of run support by his team. Therefore I contend that a manager should never draft a pitcher due to their Win-Loss record.
Hitters are defined in all cases except for Batting Average (BA) and On-Base Plus Slugging Percentage (OPS) by cumulative stats. Runs, Home Runs, Runs Batted In (RBI), Stolen Bases are all controlled by the player themselves and the pitcher they are facing. Other than AVG and OPS, a player’s fantasy stat contribution is not affected by the other players on the fantasy team.
My team came in second place in my biggest keeper league in 2007, with the following pitching staff:
Brandon Webb, James Shields, Jeff Francis, Shaun Marcum, Chad Gaudin, Jose Valverde, Joaquin Benoit, and Joel Zumaya.
This gave me a “staff” ERA of 3.77, WHIP of 1.27, and K/9 7.56.
An argument came up recently about how many top-tier pitchers should be kept for the following year when 10 keepers are allowed. This is assuming a team has more than 10 keeper-worthy players.
I contend that only two of the most elite pitchers should be kept and the others traded during the fantasy off-season. The reason is that a fantasy staff needs only two “star” pitchers and a good draft of above-average pitchers to be extremely competitive.
To compare, I substituted a few top-tier, but non-elite pitchers for the the worst of my starting pitchers, Chad Gaudin, to see how it affected my calculated stats. I did not use an elite pitcher for an example because of the assumption that all elite pitchers (Peavy, Webb, Santana, etc.) would be kept already.
Pitcher With (instead of Gaudin):
Roy Halladay: Team ERA 3.65 (-0.12), WHIP 1.22 (-0.05), K/9 7.29 (-0.27)
Javier Vazquez: Team ERA 3.66 (-0.11), WHIP 1.20 (-0.07), K/9 7.89 (+0.33)
Daisuke Matsuzaka: Team ERA 3.77 (+/- 0.00), WHIP 1.24 (-0.03), K/9, 7.88 (+0.32)
Fausto Carmona: Team ERA 3.54 (-0.23), WHIP 1.22 (-0.05), K/9 7.34 (-0.22)
Roy Oswalt: Team ERA 3.56 (-0.12), WHIP 1.24 (-0.03), K/9 7.48 (-0.08)
Felix Hernandez: Team ERA 3.68 (-0.09), WHIP 1.24 (-0.03), K/9 7.70 (+0.14)
So from the stats above, substituting any of the above “second tier” starting pitchers with a low-tier starting pitcher like Chad Gaudin makes very little impact on the overall stats of a fantasy pitching team. One could argue that a player like Carmona significantly helps ERA, until you realize that WHIP is virtually the same, and K/9 is harmed an equal amount to the boost in ERA.
My point is that if a manager feels comfortable with their fantasy drafting skill, they should target one or two very good pitchers (or keep them!) in the first few rounds of the draft, and then identify many above-average pitchers or “sleepers” in the early “teen” draft rounds.
To compare, the team that won the league above had the following calculated stats for his staff:
Team ERA 3.47, Team WHIP 1.16, Team K/9 8.05.
His staff was Jeremy Bonderman, Rich Hill, Kyle Kendrick, Roy Oswalt, Johan Santana, JJ Putz, Takashi Saito, and Huston Street.
After 2006, the only keeper-quality starters on that list were Santana and Oswalt. The other three starters were risks coming in to 2007 because they had no track record. Rich Hill turned out to be a gold mine in 2007. That, along with three dominant relievers, made his calculated stats what they were. Good managing, not early pitcher drafting, made these stats.
Even replacing my worst pitcher with a guy like Halladay or Vazquez would not allow my staff to compare favorably to his. He and I used the same strategy, and it panned out better for him, but I would have been worse off had I wasted top draft picks on starting pitching instead of hitters whose accumulative stats make them more valuable overall to a fantasy team.
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