Out in Left Field’s deep look at specific clubs continues with a dissection of the Chicago Cubs.  The Cubs won 97 games in 2008 and took the NL Central by brute force.  They signed Kosuke Fukudome, at the time the hottest Japanese import of the year, and midseason moves brought them ace starter Rich Harden.  Closer-turned-starter Ryan Dempster had an especially successful season, logging over 200 innings and winning 17 games with an ERA under 3.00.  Rookie of the Year catcher Geovany Soto slugged a season OPS of over .800 to become one of the primary run scorers.

The Chicago Cubs are rightfully the favorite to win the weak NL Central in 2009 if everything goes their way.

Not so fast.  If everything goes their way.

2009 Hot Stove Activity:

Arrived:

• Milton Bradley (OF)
• Joey Gathright (OF)
• Aaron Miles (2B)
• Luis Vizcaino (RP)
• Kevin Gregg (RP)
• Garrett Olson (SP)

Departed:

• Mark DeRosa (2B,3B,1B,OF)
• Bob Howry (RP)
• Jason Marquis (SP)
• Kerry Wood (CL)
• Jim Edmonds (OF)
• Jon Lieber (SP/RP)
• Felix Pie (OF)

 

Off-Season Analysis:

On paper, the Cubs still have one of the most potent lineups in the National League, and arguably have the best starting rotation.  The bullpen is above-average as well.  The combination of Derrick Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Soto, Alfonso Soriano, and Bradley is a murderous sequence of hitters for an opposing pitcher to wade through.  Miles and Ryan Theriot are less threatening, but are tough at-bats that will do a nice job of creating RBI opportunities for the sluggers.

The signing of Gathright makes no sense.  The speedy center fielder is the not-so-proud owner of a .583 OPS in 2008 (which is 404th out of 435 batters that logged at least 100 AB).  What is the purpose of being fast if you rarely leave home plate?  That is a rhetorical question.  Reed Johnson, when healthy, is an under-rated hitter who can play a decent Center Field.  Gathright has seemingly no use on this team (or in the majors) except as a late-inning defensive replacement and pinch-runner.

Bradley has played as many as 141 games during a season only once in his career and rarely tops 100.  His stints on the disabled list are well-publicized.  Nobody can argue that Bradley is a potential MVP candidate when healthy, but he has NEVER stayed healthy long enough for it to become a reality.  This three-year contract is an extremely risky play for the Cubs.  High-reward, but extremely high-risk.  Only time can tell if this gamble will pay off.

Losing DeRosa is going to sting in a couple months as the Cubs begin to need the flexibility of an excellent bat who can play virtually any position on the field.  The consequences of this trade will echo when Bradley makes his obligatory DL visits.

Depth – The Cubs’ Achilles Heel:

Here is what the Cubs’ starting roster might look like on opening day, 2009:

C	Geovany Soto
1B	Derrick Lee
2B	Aaron Miles
3B	Aramis Ramirez
SS	Ryan Theriot
LF	Alfonso Soriano
CF	Reed Johnson
RF	Milton Bradley
SP	Carlos Zambrano
SP	Rich Harden
SP	Ted Lilly
SP	Ryan Dempster
SP	Sean Marshall
CL	Carlos Marmol
SU	Kevin Gregg

 

Again, on paper, this is a championship team.

Let’s play “What-If”.  All of these scenarios are very possible, based on history of these players and other players in similar circumstances:

• What if Bradley gets hurt? (Bradley averages 89.5 games played between 2005 and 2008) 
• Fukudome plays right field
•  What if Soriano gets hurt? (Soriano averages 139.75 games played between 2005 and 2008) 
• Johnson plays Left Field full-time and Gathright becomes the full-time Center-Fielder
• What if Soto has off-days? 
• Koyie Hill is the backup catcher (who??)
• What if there is a 2B platoon?
• Mike Fontenot takes over the other half
• What if Harden gets hurt? (Harden averages 14.25 starts per season between 2005 and 2008) 
• Olson has starting experience
• What if Dempster breaks down under his work load? (Dempster has not been a starter since the minor leagues until 2008)
• Rich Hill has starting exprience
• What if Marshall does not pan out as a full-time starter? (He’s never pitched more than 125 innings in a season in the majors)
• Chad Gaudin has starting experience

 

All of a sudden, the Cubs’ roster looks like this:

C	Koyie Hill
1B	Derrick Lee
2B	Mike Fontenot
3B	Aramis Ramirez
SS	Ryan Theriot
LF	Reed Johnson
CF	Joey Gathright
RF	Kosuke Fukudome
SP	Carlos Zambrano
SP	Garrett Olson
SP	Ted Lilly
SP	Rich Hill
SP	Chad Gaudin
CL	Carlos Marmol
SU	Kevin Gregg

 

Yikes.  All of a sudden the lineup contains a light-hitting 2B, three light-hitting outfielders, one of which can not hit his way out of a wet paper bag (I’ll leave it to you to figure out which one), and there is no lineup protection for Lee and Ramierz.  Who is Koyie Hill?  In the starting rotation, after Zambrano, none of the starters sport a career ERA under 4.00.  That is not terrible, but “average” will not win a World Series with a lineup like that.  And all of a sudden the loss of the ultra-talented but underperforming prospect Felix Pie begins to bite back.

 

A lot of clubs have issues with team depth, but some are better at handling it than others.  Nobody can realistically expect all of the above things to occur, but two or three of them is very possible and would cause a huge problem with this team.

 

The Cubs have already been annointed as a 2009 playoff team and World Series contender due to the strength of their rotation and starting lineup.  But compare the above to another team that has been annointed and had a similar record in 2008.

 

Here’s what the Boston Red Sox‘ starting roster might look like:

C	Jason Varitek*
1B	Kevin Youkilis
2B	Dustin Pedroia
3B	Mike Lowell
SS	Jed Lowrie
LF	Jason Bay
CF	Jacoby Ellsbury
RF	J.D. Drew
SP	Josh Beckett
SP	Daisuke Matsuzaka
SP	Jon Lester
SP	Tim Wakefield
SP	Brad Penny
CL	Jon Papelbon
SU	Hideki Okajima

 

*Varitek has not signed yet, but probably will.  This roster does not include DH David Ortiz for comparison sake.

 

Again, let’s play “What If”:

 

• What if Lowell gets hurt or does not recover well from his surgery? 
• Youkilis moves from first to third, and Mark Kotsay fills in at first, a position he played some last year, and Kotsay carries a decent stick.  Ortiz can also play there if absolutely required.
• What if Drew gets hurt?  (injury-prone) 
• The Sox have ultra-talented Rocco Baldelli to fill in.
• What if Lowrie stinks? (mostly unproven) 
• The Sox have Julio Lugo, who at least has good experience and has had some success in the majors.
• What if Beckett gets hurt, Lester can’t repeat his 2008 performance, and Penny fails? 
• The backups are John Smoltz, Clay Buchholz, and Justin Masterson, who are not ideal but have a hell of a lot more talent and upside than the Cubs’ fill-in starting pitchers.
• What if Varitek needs a day off? (or is not signed) 
• Josh Bard could be a starting catcher almost anywhere else, and would be a good backup in Boston.

 

So now the Sox’ lineup looks like this:

C	Josh Bard
1B	Mark Kotsay
2B	Dustin Pedroia
3B	Kevin Youkilis
SS	Julio Lugo
LF	Jason Bay
CF	Jacoby Ellsbury
RF	Rocco Baldelli
SP	John Smoltz
SP	Daisuke Matsuzaka
SP	Clay Buchholz
SP	Justin Masterson
SP	Tim Wakefield
CL	Jon Papelbon
SU	Hideki Okajima

 

While not as ideal as their opening-day roster, the Red Sox’ backup plan looks more fearsome than does the Cubs’ alternate lineup.  This Sox lineup could easily remain competitive and win many of their games until either their starters are healed or a move is made to fix the hole.

 

SUMMARY:

 

The point to be made here is other clubs that have depth issues (Chicago White Sox, San Francisco Giants, Colorado Rockies, etc.) are not being hailed as sure-fire playoff contenders, and for many good reasons.  But the Cubs, due to their market saturation and high-spending ways, are a darling of sports prognosticators everywhere.  A close examination of all of last year’s playoff teams would likely show that all had the depth to weather the aches and pains that always come during a typical season.  Even the Cubs last season with Edmonds, DeRosa, Fontenot, Fukudome, Wood, and Marquis were deeper than they are now.

 

Sacrificing depth for flash could bring the Cubs back down to Earth from the realms of high expectations.  The Cubs are gambling everything on their team being healthy in 2009.  They are still the clear favorite to win the NL Central, but a few predictable injuries, particularly to Bradley, Soriano, and Harden could put this team into a tailspin that would land them in third or fourth in the division.  The Astros, Cardinals, and Brewers‘ clubs do not look as flashy up top, but they are much deeper and will have the depth to continue consistent play in the face of a few injuries.  The Cubs will not have that luxury, and the division race will be much closer than some experts think. 

 

 And there is one more question looming:  What if the Cubs are sold and the new owners wish to cut payroll?