Results tagged ‘ 2009 ’

The 2009 Yankees at Half-Price!

The Yankees’ spending has been subject of ire for baseball fans nationwide, particularly this offseason as the global economy has declined.  Companies all over the world are trimming payrolls, laying off skilled employees, restructuring, and instituting payroll and hiring freezes.  Meanwhile, the Yankees , who already boasted an MLB-high 2008 payroll of $209,081,577 (thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for the figures in this article), awarded Alex Rodriguez $275 million over 10 years in 2008 and in 2009 awarded CC Sabathia $161 million over 7 years, Mark Teixeira $180 million over 8 years, and A.J. Burnett $82.5 million over 5 years.   Those last 3 players rank as the 2nd, 3rd, and 5th highest-paid players on the Yankees payroll, and they were signed while a severe economic depression was in full-swing.  Scandalous!

Armed with that eyebrow-raising information, I have built a team of Anti-Yankees – that is to say a team that I feel can score the same number of runs as the 2009 New York Yankees, but for less than half the yearly price.

Here are the rules I played by:

1.       Salary figures are 2009 figures, where available.

2.       Lineup and Rotation/Bullpen spots will line up as closely as possible between existing Yankee and proposed Anti-Yankee.

3.       Players selected for Anti-Yankees club must have been available, either through trade or free-agency, at some point during their career.  Therefore, players under control of the team they were drafted by (such as Tim Lincecum), and players that have never hit free agency (such as Lance Berkman) are ineligible

4.       Total 2009 payroll must be less than half the Yankees’ 2009 Payroll

5.       Team stats must line up as closely as possible.

6.       If a player (Yankee or otherwise) missed significant time in 2008, his stats from his most recent complete season were used.

7.       Average age off the team  must be EQUAL

8.       Stats for Anti-Yankee team will be adjusted proportionally to match the number of At-Bats achieved by Yankee Lineup counterpart.

The 2009 Yankees (my projected batting order and rotation)

Average Age = 31

Batting Lineup:

1.       LF Johnny Damon ($13,000,000.00)

2.       SS Derek Jeter ($20,000,000.00)

3.       1B Mark Teixeira ($20,000,000.00)

4.       3B Alex Rodriguez ($32,000,000.00)

5.       DH Hideki Matsui ($13,000,000.00)

6.       RF Xavier Nady ($6,550,000.00)

7.       C Jorge Posada ($13,100,000.00)

8.       CF Nick Swisher ($5,300,000.00)*

9.       2B Robinson Cano ($6,000,000.00)

Pitching Rotation:

1.       CC Sabathia ($14,000,000.00)

2.       A.J. Burnett ($16,500,000.00)

3.       Chien-Ming Wang ($5,000,000.00)

4.       Andy Pettitte ($5,500,000.00)

5.       Joba Chamberlain ($390,000.00)

Bullpen:

1.       Closer Mariano Rivera ($15,000,000.00)

2.       Set-Up Damaso Marte ($3,750,000.00)

TOTAL 2009 SALARY OF SELECTED PLAYERS = $189,090,000.00

*Yes , I am aware the Yankees have not settled on an every-day CF, but it would be a mistake to not give every-day at-bats to Swisher.  He gets on base, he hits for power, and is relatively young.  At worst he needs the at-bats to showcase his talent for a midseason trade.

 

THE ANTI-YANKEES

Lineup Spot #1:  Leadoff

Yankee:
LF Johnny Damon, Age 35. ($13,000,000.00)
2008
Stats (AB: 555) (R: 95) (H:168) (HR: 17) (RBI: 71) (SB: 29) (OBP: 0.375) (SLG: 0.461) (AVG: 0.303)

Anti -Yankee:
CF Shane Victorino, Age 28. ($3,125,000.00)
2008 Stats Adjusted for 555 AB:
Stats (AB: 555) (R: 99) (H:163) (HR: 14) (RBI: 56) (SB: 35) (OBP: 0.352) (SLG: 0.447) (AVG: 0.293)

Lineup Spot #2

Yankee:
SS Derek Jeter, Age 34. ($20,000,000.00)
2008
Stats (AB: 596) (R:88) (H: 179)(HR: 11) (RBI: 69) (SB: 11) (OBP: 0.363) (SLG: 0.408) (AVG: 0.300)

Anti-Yankee:
RF Randy Wynn, Age 34. ($8,875,000.00)
2008 Stats Adjusted for 596 AB:
Stats: (AB; 596) (R: 84) (H: 182) (HR: 10) (RBI: 64) (SB: 25) (OBP: 0.363) (SLG: 0.426) (AVG: 0.306)
**Note:  How many die-hard Yankee fans will scream upon learning that offensively, Derek Jeter was worse in 2008 than Randy Wynn?  Ouch!

Lineup Spot #3

Yankee:
1B Mark Teixeira, Age 28 ($20,000,000.00)
2008
Stats: (AB: 574) (R: 102) (H: 177) (HR: 33) (SB: 2) (OBP: 0.410) (SLG: 0.552) (AVG: 0.308)

Anti-Yankee:
LF Josh Hamilton, Age 27. ($396,830.00)**
2008 Stats Adjusted for 574 AB:
Stats: (AB: 574) (R:90) (H: 175) (HR: 29) (SB: 8) (OBP: 0.371) (SLG: 0.530) (AVG: 0.304)
**Hamilton is due for a hefty pay raise, but nothing approaching Teix’ $20M, and he’s only 1 year younger.

Lineup Spot #4: Cleanup

Yankee:
3B Alex Rodriguez, Age 33. ($32,000,000.00)
2008
Stats: (AB : 510) (R: 104) (H: 154) (HR: 35) (RBI: 103) (SB: 18) (OBP: 0.392) (SLG: 0.573) (AVG: 0.302)

Anti-Yankee:
DH Ryan Ludwick, Age 30. ($4,250,000.00 – Player Arbitration Figure)**
2008 Stats adjusted for 510 AB:
Stats: (AB: 510) (R: 99) (H: 153) (HR: 35) (RBI: 107) (SB: 4) (OBP: 0.375) (SLG: 0.591) (AVG: 0.299)
**Holy guacamole!  Averaged out, Ryan Ludwick had as good a 2008 as A-Rod, for $25M less cost!

Lineup Spot #5:

Yankee:
DH Hideki Matsui, Age 33. ($13,000,000.00)
2007**
Stats: (AB: 547) (R: 100) (H: 156) (HR: 25) (RBI: 103) (SB: 4) (OBP: 0.367) (SLG: 0.488) (AV: 0.285)
**Matsui spent most of 2008 injured

Anti-Yankee:
1B Aubrey Huff, Age 34. ($8,000,000.00)
2008 Stats adjusted to 510 AB.
Stats: (AB: 510) (R: 82) (H: 155) (HR: 27) (RBI: 92) (SB: 3) (OBP: 0.360) (SLG: 0.552) (AVG: 0.304)

Lineup Spot #6:

Yankee:
RF Xavier Nady, Age 30 ($6,550,000.00)
2008
Stats: (AB:555) (R: 76) (H: 169) (HR: 25) (RBI: 97) (SB: 2) (OBP: 0.357) (SLG: 0.510) (AVG: 0.305)

Anti-Yankee:
3B Troy Glaus, Age 32 ($9,000,000.00)
2008 Stats adjusted for 555 AB.
Stats (AB: 555) (R: 70) (H: 150) (HR: 28) (RBI: 101) (SB: 0) (OBP: 0.372) (SLG: (0.483) (AVG: 0.270)

Lineup Spot #7:

Yankee:
C Jorge Posada, Age 37. ($13,100,000.00)
2006**
Stats (AB: 465) (R: 65) (H: 129) (HR: 23) (RBI: 93) (SB: 3) (OBP: 0.374) (SLG: 0.492) (AVG: 0.277)
**Posada was injured during 2008, and 2007 stats are hugely out of line with career averages.

Anti-Yankee:
2B Alexei Ramirez, Age 27 ($1,100,000.00)**
2008 Stats adjusted to 465 AB.
Stats (AB: 465) (R: 69) (H: 147) (HR: 22) (RBI: 81) (SB: 14) (OBP: 0.317) (SLG: 0.475) (AVG: 0.290)
**There is a slight drop-off in production here, but the increase in base-running and AVG make up for shortcomings in OBP

Lineup Spot #8:

Yankee:
CF Nick Swisher, Age 28. ($5,300,000.00)
2007 Stats**
Stats (AB: 539) (R: 84) (H: 141) (HR:22) (RBI: 78) (SB: 3) (OBP:  0.381) (SLG: 0.455) (AVG 0.262)
**In 2008, Swisher was often used out of position and in a lineup spot he did not seem entirely comfortable in.  2007 stats are more in line with his career averages.

Anti-Yankee:
SS Carlos Guillen, Age 33 ($10,000,000.00)
2007 Stats adjusted for 539 AB
Stats: (AB: 539) (R: 82) (HR: 20) (RBI: 97) (SB: 12) (OBP: 0.322) (SLG: 0.445) (AVG: 0.292)

Lineup Spot #9

Yankee
2B Robinson Cano, Age 26. ($6,000,000.00)
2008
Stats: (AB: 597) (R: 70) (H: 162) (HR: 14) (RBI: 72) (SB: 2) (OBP: 0.305) (SLG: 0.410) (AVG: 0.271)

Anti- Yankee
C Bengie Molina, Age 34 ($6,000,000.00)
2008 Stats adjusted for 597 AB
Stats: (AB: 597) (R: 52) (H: 175) (HR: 18) (RBI: 107) (SB: 0) (OBP: 0.322) (SLG: 0.445) (AVG: 0.292)

Rotation Spot #1

Yankee
SP CC Sabathia, Age 28. ($14,000,000.00)
2007**
Stats (IP: 241) (ERA: 3.21) (H: 241) (BB: 37) (K: 209)
**2008 stats way out of line with career averages

Anti-Yankee
SP Erik Bedard, Age 29 ($7,750,000.00)
2007 stats adjusted for 241 IP
Stats (IP: 241) (ERA: 3.16) (H: 187) (BB: 75) (K: 293)

Rotation Spot #2

Yankee
SP A.J. Burnett, Age 32. ($16,500,000.00)
2008
Stats (IP: 221.1) (ERA: 4.07) (H: 238) (BB: 86) (K: 231)

Anti-Yankee
SP Jaime Moyer, Age 46 ($6,500,000.00)
2008 Stats adjusted for 221.1 IP
Stats: (IP: 221.1) (ERA: 3.71) (H: 224) (BB: 70) (K: 139)

Rotation Spot #3

Yankee
SP Chien-Ming Wang, Age 28. ($5,000,000.00)
2007**
Stats: (IP: 199.1) (ERA: 3.70) (H: 199) (BB: 70) (K: 104)
**Wang was injured most off 2008

Anti-Yankee
SP Justin Duchscherer, Age 31. ($4,600,000.00)
2008 Stats adjusted for 199.1 IP
Stats: (IP: 199.1) (ERA: 2.54) (H: 151) (BB: 48) (K: 134)

Rotation Spot #4

Yankee
SP Andy Pettitte, Age 36 ($5,500,000.00)
2008
Stats: (IP: 204) (ERA: 4.54) (H: 233) (BB: 55) (K: 158)

Anti-Yankee
SP Edwin Jackson, Age 32 ($2,200,000.00)
2008 Stats adjusted for 204 IP
Stats: (IP: 204) (ERA: 4.42) (H: 222) (BB: 86) (K: 120)

Rotation Spot #5

Yankee
SP Joba Chamberlain, Age 23 ($390,000.00)
2008
Stats: (IP: 100.1) (ERA: 2.60) (H: 87) (BB: 39) (K: 118)

Anti-Yankee
SP Edinson Volquez, Age 28 ($392,500.00)
2008 Stats adjusted for 100.1 IP
Stats: (IP: 100.1) (ERA: 3.21) (H: 85) (BB: 47) (K: 105)

Set-Up Man

Yankee
RP Damaso Marte, Age 33 ($3,750,000.00)
2008
Stats: (IP: 65) (ERA: 4.02) (H: 52) (BB: 26) (K: 71)

Anti-Yankee
RP Taylor Buchholz, Age 27 ($1,055,000.00)
2008 Stats adjusted for 65 IP
Stats: (IP: 65) (ERA: 2.17) (H: 44) (BB: 18) (K: 55)

Closer

Yankee
RP Mariano Rivera, Age 39 ($15,000,000.00)
2008
Stats: (IP: 70.2) (ERA: 1.40) (H: 41) (BB: 6) (K: 71) (SV: 39)

Anti-Yankee
RP Brad Lidge, Age 32 ($11,500,000.00)
2008 Stats adjusted for 70.2 IP
Stats: (IP: 70.2) (ERA: 2.17) (H: 51) (BB: 36) (K: 93) (SV: 41)

So, my 2009 Anti-Yankee team consists of the following:

Average Age = 31

Batting Lineup:

  1. CF Shane Victorino ($3,125,000.00)
  2. RF Randy Wynn ($8,875,000.00)
  3. LF Josh Hamilton ($396,830.00)
  4. DH Ryan Ludwick ($4,250,000.00)
  5. 1B Aubrey Huff ($8,000,000.00)
  6. 3B Troy Glaus ($9,000,000.00)
  7. 2B Alexei Ramirez ($1,100,000.00)
  8. SS Carlos Guillen ($10,000,000.00)
  9. C Bengie Molina ($6,000,000.00)

 

Pitching Rotation:

 

  1. Erik Bedard ($7,750,000.00)
  2. Jamie Moyer ($6,500,000.00)
  3. Justin Duchscherer ($4,600,000.00)
  4. Edwin Jackson ($2,200,000.00)
  5. Edinson Volquez ($392,500.00)

 

Bullpen:

 

  1. CL Brad Lidge ($11,500,000.00)
  2. SU Taylor Buchholz ($1,055,000.00)

 

TOTAL SALARY OF SELECTED PLAYERS = $84,744,330.00 (45% of Yankees’ Salary above)

 

TEAM STATS:

Yankees
BAT: (R: 784) (HR: 205) (RBI: 807) (AVG OBP: 0.369) (AVG SLG: 0.483) (AVG AVG: 0.291)
PITCH: (H: 1061) (ER: 440) (BB: 308) (K: 968)

 

Anti-Yankees
BAT: (R: 727) (HR: 203) (RBI: 826) (AVG OBP: 0.354) (AVG SLG: 0.494) (AVG AVG: 0.295)
PITCH:  (H: 1101) (ER: 399) (BB:380) (K: 939)

 

The point is, despite the hype of the big-spending teams like the Yankees, a lower-budget club with a good talent-recognition program such as the Brewers, A’s, or Rays, will always be able to compete.  Overpaid veterans are nice if you have a few of them, but building an entire team of such players is a complete waste of resources.

 

This is as good a reason as any why a salary cap is NOT needed in Major League Baseball.  Every team has their own tactic to success.  Perhaps unsuccessful franchises (I’m looking at you, Pittsburgh and Washington and Baltimore) should consider applying a different strategy to their organization, because success in MLB will always be attainable if you have a good front office.

 

Anti-Yankees.xls

 

2009 Chicago Cubs – Smoke and Mirrors?

Out in Left Field’s deep look at specific clubs continues with a dissection of the Chicago Cubs.  The Cubs won 97 games in 2008 and took the NL Central by brute force.  They signed Kosuke Fukudome, at the time the hottest Japanese import of the year, and midseason moves brought them ace starter Rich Harden.  Closer-turned-starter Ryan Dempster had an especially successful season, logging over 200 innings and winning 17 games with an ERA under 3.00.  Rookie of the Year catcher Geovany Soto slugged a season OPS of over .800 to become one of the primary run scorers.

The Chicago Cubs are rightfully the favorite to win the weak NL Central in 2009 if everything goes their way.

Not so fast.  If everything goes their way.

2009 Hot Stove Activity:

Arrived:

  • Milton Bradley (OF)
  • Joey Gathright (OF)
  • Aaron Miles (2B)
  • Luis Vizcaino (RP)
  • Kevin Gregg (RP)
  • Garrett Olson (SP)

Departed:

  • Mark DeRosa (2B,3B,1B,OF)
  • Bob Howry (RP)
  • Jason Marquis (SP)
  • Kerry Wood (CL)
  • Jim Edmonds (OF)
  • Jon Lieber (SP/RP)
  • Felix Pie (OF)

 

Off-Season Analysis:

On paper, the Cubs still have one of the most potent lineups in the National League, and arguably have the best starting rotation.  The bullpen is above-average as well.  The combination of Derrick Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Soto, Alfonso Soriano, and Bradley is a murderous sequence of hitters for an opposing pitcher to wade through.  Miles and Ryan Theriot are less threatening, but are tough at-bats that will do a nice job of creating RBI opportunities for the sluggers.

The signing of Gathright makes no sense.  The speedy center fielder is the not-so-proud owner of a .583 OPS in 2008 (which is 404th out of 435 batters that logged at least 100 AB).  What is the purpose of being fast if you rarely leave home plate?  That is a rhetorical question.  Reed Johnson, when healthy, is an under-rated hitter who can play a decent Center Field.  Gathright has seemingly no use on this team (or in the majors) except as a late-inning defensive replacement and pinch-runner.

Bradley has played as many as 141 games during a season only once in his career and rarely tops 100.  His stints on the disabled list are well-publicized.  Nobody can argue that Bradley is a potential MVP candidate when healthy, but he has NEVER stayed healthy long enough for it to become a reality.  This three-year contract is an extremely risky play for the Cubs.  High-reward, but extremely high-risk.  Only time can tell if this gamble will pay off.

Losing DeRosa is going to sting in a couple months as the Cubs begin to need the flexibility of an excellent bat who can play virtually any position on the field.  The consequences of this trade will echo when Bradley makes his obligatory DL visits.

Depth – The Cubs’ Achilles Heel:

Here is what the Cubs’ starting roster might look like on opening day, 2009:

C

Geovany Soto

1B

Derrick Lee

2B

Aaron Miles

3B

Aramis Ramirez

SS

Ryan Theriot

LF

Alfonso Soriano

CF

Reed Johnson

RF

Milton Bradley

 

 

SP

Carlos Zambrano

SP

Rich Harden

SP

Ted Lilly

SP

Ryan Dempster

SP

Sean Marshall

CL

Carlos Marmol

SU

Kevin Gregg

 

Again, on paper, this is a championship team.

Let’s play “What-If”.  All of these scenarios are very possible, based on history of these players and other players in similar circumstances:

  • What if Bradley gets hurt? (Bradley averages 89.5 games played between 2005 and 2008) 
      • Fukudome plays right field
  •  What if Soriano gets hurt? (Soriano averages 139.75 games played between 2005 and 2008) 
      • Johnson plays Left Field full-time and Gathright becomes the full-time Center-Fielder
  • What if Soto has off-days? 
      • Koyie Hill is the backup catcher (who??)
  • What if there is a 2B platoon?
      • Mike Fontenot takes over the other half
  • What if Harden gets hurt? (Harden averages 14.25 starts per season between 2005 and 2008) 
      • Olson has starting experience
  • What if Dempster breaks down under his work load? (Dempster has not been a starter since the minor leagues until 2008)
      • Rich Hill has starting exprience
  • What if Marshall does not pan out as a full-time starter? (He’s never pitched more than 125 innings in a season in the majors)
      • Chad Gaudin has starting experience

 

All of a sudden, the Cubs’ roster looks like this:

 

C

 

Koyie Hill

1B

Derrick Lee

2B

Mike Fontenot

3B

Aramis Ramirez

SS

Ryan Theriot

LF

Reed Johnson

CF

Joey Gathright

RF

Kosuke Fukudome

 

 

SP

Carlos Zambrano

SP

Garrett Olson

SP

Ted Lilly

SP

Rich Hill

SP

Chad Gaudin

CL

Carlos Marmol

SU

Kevin Gregg

 

Yikes.  All of a sudden the lineup contains a light-hitting 2B, three light-hitting outfielders, one of which can not hit his way out of a wet paper bag (I’ll leave it to you to figure out which one), and there is no lineup protection for Lee and Ramierz.  Who is Koyie Hill?  In the starting rotation, after Zambrano, none of the starters sport a career ERA under 4.00.  That is not terrible, but “average” will not win a World Series with a lineup like that.  And all of a sudden the loss of the ultra-talented but underperforming prospect Felix Pie begins to bite back.

 

A lot of clubs have issues with team depth, but some are better at handling it than others.  Nobody can realistically expect all of the above things to occur, but two or three of them is very possible and would cause a huge problem with this team.

 

The Cubs have already been annointed as a 2009 playoff team and World Series contender due to the strength of their rotation and starting lineup.  But compare the above to another team that has been annointed and had a similar record in 2008.

 

Here’s what the Boston Red Sox‘ starting roster might look like:

 

C

 

Jason Varitek*

1B

Kevin Youkilis

2B

Dustin Pedroia

3B

Mike Lowell

SS

Jed Lowrie

LF

Jason Bay

CF

Jacoby Ellsbury

RF

J.D. Drew

 

 

SP

Josh Beckett

SP

Daisuke Matsuzaka

SP

Jon Lester

SP

Tim Wakefield

SP

Brad Penny

CL

Jon Papelbon

SU

Hideki Okajima

 

*Varitek has not signed yet, but probably will.  This roster does not include DH David Ortiz for comparison sake.

 

Again, let’s play “What If”:

 

  • What if Lowell gets hurt or does not recover well from his surgery? 
      • Youkilis moves from first to third, and Mark Kotsay fills in at first, a position he played some last year, and Kotsay carries a decent stick.  Ortiz can also play there if absolutely required.
  • What if Drew gets hurt?  (injury-prone) 
      • The Sox have ultra-talented Rocco Baldelli to fill in.
  • What if Lowrie stinks? (mostly unproven) 
      • The Sox have Julio Lugo, who at least has good experience and has had some success in the majors.
  • What if Beckett gets hurt, Lester can’t repeat his 2008 performance, and Penny fails? 
      • The backups are John Smoltz, Clay Buchholz, and Justin Masterson, who are not ideal but have a hell of a lot more talent and upside than the Cubs’ fill-in starting pitchers.
  • What if Varitek needs a day off? (or is not signed) 
      • Josh Bard could be a starting catcher almost anywhere else, and would be a good backup in Boston.

 

So now the Sox’ lineup looks like this:

 

C

 

Josh Bard

1B

Mark Kotsay

2B

Dustin Pedroia

3B

Kevin Youkilis

SS

Julio Lugo

LF

Jason Bay

CF

Jacoby Ellsbury

RF

Rocco Baldelli

 

 

SP

John Smoltz

SP

Daisuke Matsuzaka

SP

Clay Buchholz

SP

Justin Masterson

SP

Tim Wakefield

CL

Jon Papelbon

SU

Hideki Okajima

 

While not as ideal as their opening-day roster, the Red Sox’ backup plan looks more fearsome than does the Cubs’ alternate lineup.  This Sox lineup could easily remain competitive and win many of their games until either their starters are healed or a move is made to fix the hole.

 

SUMMARY:

 

The point to be made here is other clubs that have depth issues (Chicago White Sox, San Francisco Giants, Colorado Rockies, etc.) are not being hailed as sure-fire playoff contenders, and for many good reasons.  But the Cubs, due to their market saturation and high-spending ways, are a darling of sports prognosticators everywhere.  A close examination of all of last year’s playoff teams would likely show that all had the depth to weather the aches and pains that always come during a typical season.  Even the Cubs last season with Edmonds, DeRosa, Fontenot, Fukudome, Wood, and Marquis were deeper than they are now.

 

Sacrificing depth for flash could bring the Cubs back down to Earth from the realms of high expectations.  The Cubs are gambling everything on their team being healthy in 2009.  They are still the clear favorite to win the NL Central, but a few predictable injuries, particularly to Bradley, Soriano, and Harden could put this team into a tailspin that would land them in third or fourth in the division.  The Astros, Cardinals, and Brewers‘ clubs do not look as flashy up top, but they are much deeper and will have the depth to continue consistent play in the face of a few injuries.  The Cubs will not have that luxury, and the division race will be much closer than some experts think. 

 

 And there is one more question looming:  What if the Cubs are sold and the new owners wish to cut payroll?

2009 Houston Astros

Due to the loss of key sponsors, the Astros have been forced to trim their payroll.  Many other teams find themselves in the same situation this season, but the Astros’ roster is particularly inflexible due to unlimited no-trade agreements with their highest paid players, Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt, and Carlos Lee.

This is probably a good thing for Astros fans, because it prevents ownership from strong-arming the GM office into trading away its three core players for prospects simply in the interest of saving money.  The Astros farm system is epically bad, but the aforementioned stars follow in the mold of long-time Astros Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio in two important ways:
1.  They are amazingly good.  People outside of Houston do not realize how truly talented Berkman and Oswalt are because of the relatively limited media opportunities given to mid-market, middle-america clubs.  Carlos Lee may be one of the most overlooked hitters in the National League.
2.  They are hell-bent on remaining Astros.  Berkman played college ball in Houston.  Oswalt seems disenterested in the money-grabbing, team-hopping ways of his peers, and maintains he will retire at the end of his contract, despite being relatively young for a pitcher of his skill.  Lee owns a cattle ranch north of Houston and has even skipped out a Spring Training practice to attend the gigantic Houston Livestock Show.

This roster inflexibility led to the regrettable non-tendering of Ty Wigginton, who should shine if given an everyday job in 2009 and stays healthy.  It also prevents the Astros from making any sort of moves to improve their questionalbe rotation.  Astros GM Ed Wade also can not seriously shop short stop Miguel Tejada or closer Jose Valverde because nobody is buying at present.

That being said, the Astros’ roster at the beginning of the season will look similar to the 2008 roster, only with steady players Wigginton, Mark Loretta, Brad Ausmus, and starting pitcher Randy Wolf missing. 

This offseason, Wade has added injury-magnet Mike Hampton to give his “last hurrah” in an Astros uniform, and plugged bench holes with a pair of decent veterans, Aaron Boone and Jason Michaels.

Astros fans:  Forget contending in 2009.  But what happens after the All-Star break and at the trade deadline could be very interesting.

Projected Opening Day Roster:
C:  Humberto Quintero
1B: Lance Berkman
2B: Kazuo Matsui
3B: Geoff Blum / Aaron Boone (Platoon)
SS: Miguel Tejada
LF: Carlos Lee
CF: Michael Bourn
RF: Hunter Pence
BN: Lou Palmisano (C)
BN: Jason Smith (inf)
BN: Jason Michaels (OF)
BN: Darrin Erstad (OF/1B)

SP1: Roy Oswalt
SP2: Wandy Rodriguez (look for another improved season here)
SP3: Brandon Backe
SP4: Mike Hampton
SP5: Brian Moehler
CL: Jose Valverde
SU: Doug Brocail
RP: Geoff Geary
RP: LaTroy Hawkins
RP: Wesley Wright
RP: Tim Byrdak
RP: Clay Hensley

There are a few interesting names to watch down on the farm:
Drew Sutton 2B/SS came out of seemingly nowhere to hit 20 HR with a .318 BA and .934 OPS for AA Corpus Christi in 2008, and followed that up with a rock-solid performance in the Arizona Fall League.  Sutton could be in line for a mid-season call-up to backup injury-risk Kazuo Matsui and Miguel Tejada.

Felipe Paulino (SP) was an exciting prospect until his injury in 2008.  If he can return to form, he will definitely be holding a rotation spot at the end of the season.

Polin Trinidad (SP) is not as exciting but will get a look because he keeps the walks down.  Brad James and Bud Norris should also get a close look.  If Fernando Nieve is healthy, he may be able to re-prove himself.

Mark Saccomanno (1B/3B) destroyed AAA last season, with 27 homers and an average of .294.  He is 29, but if he can continue in 2009 what he did in 2008, he should be a significant part of a 3rd-base platoon with the chance to win the job in 2010.

Brian Bogusevic (OF) is particulary interesting because he switched from pitcher to outfielder.  All he has done since then is put up an OPS of 1.003 in AA with a BA of .371.  If Michael Bourn falters, Bogusevic could wind up with a lot of playing time at the end of the season.

* * *

At the midseason trade deadline, Wade should try to move Tejada to a contender that is looking for an offensive upgrade at short stop or DH, and should try to move defensively-sound Humberto Quintero with him to make room for J.R. Towles who still has talent despite the inexplicable failure of 2008.

Jose Valverde should also be moved at the deadline, as he is up for free agency in 2010, and should be able to fetch a decent prospect or two if traded to a contender in need of bullpen help for a playoff push.

Every opportunity should be made after the trade deadline to get playing time for Saccomanno, Bogusevic, and Sutton if they are able to begin 2009 the way they ended 2008.

Chris Sampson, Jason Michaels, and possibly Aaron Boone should be moved if possible at the deadline, or relegated to the 40-man roster or released.  The Astros will not be playing for anything in 2009, so roster space should be made to give regular at-bats to players in the high minors who showed real promise last season.  Now is the time for the Astros to take some chances on some young players.  If even one of the three hitters above turns out to be a major-league starter, the Astros win on the gamble.  All should be decent bench players.

* * *

Projected end-of-season Roster

C:   Lou Palmisano
1B: Lance Berkman
2B: Kazuo Matsui
3B: Mark Saccomanno
SS: Drew Sutton (temporarily if Tejada is traded)
LF: Carlos Lee
CF: Hunter Pence
RF: Brian Bogusevic
BN: Geoff Blum
BN: Darrin Erstad
BN: Michael Bourn (pinch run / defensive replacement)
BN: J.R. Towles

SP1: Roy Oswalt
SP2: Wandy Rodrigues
SP3: Clay Hensley
SP4: Mike Hampton
SP5: Felipe Paulino
CL:  Doug Brocail
SU:  Fernando Nieve
RP: Geoff Geary
RP: LaTroy Hawkins
RP: Wesley Wright
RP: Brian Moehler
RP: Tim Byrdak

The Astros should take the financial crunch of 2009 and their payroll inflexibility as an opportunity to give three or four of their prospects a real shot at playing in the majors.

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