Thoughts on the Red Sox

Over lunch, I browsed through SI.com’s Truth and Rumors section, for lack of any decent sports headlines.  One commenter* uttered the following phrase about the Yankees:  

“They’re an aging team and Boston is killing them in free agency.”

Leaving the first part alone, is that second part really true?

*following up on my post about people who comment regularly on public message boards (excluding the fine people who comment on my blogs, of course), I find that the TNR commentors are by far the worst in the world.  Bunch of losers.  10,000+ posts on a sports rumor mill message board?  Get a life!

So here are some stats:

(Stats are R-HR-RBI-SB and AVG/OBP/SLG for 2010)
Player 1:  87-31-101-0, and 293/398/511 (591 AB)
Player 2:  84-28-102-2, and 321/365/553 (589 AB)
Player 3:  64-20-79-1, and 302/351/493  (493 AB)
Player 4:  110-19-90-47, and 307/356/495 (600 AB)

You can probably guess who these players are, but play along for now.
Player 1′s stats may be slightly depressed from playing in a bad lineup in a big home park
Player 2′s stats are in-line with his career numbers, only with slightly higher slash stats
Player 3 plays a premium position in which there are only a handful of good offensive players.
Player 4 had a career year with all numbers above his career averages except for SB.

Just going by the stats and background above, if somebody told me to “pick 2″, and that all are in the primes of their careers, age-wise, I would have to pick players 1 and 2, with the highest OPS of the four.

Player 1:  Adrian Gonzalez
Player 2:  Adrian Beltre
Player 3:  Victor Martinez
Player 4:  Carl Crawford

So the Sox have given up two elite players and gained two elite players.  Does that make them immeasurably better than 2010, as the media would like us to believe?  I say no, just on the surface.  The addition of Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler to the bullpen is nice, but Jarrod Saltalamacchia is a far cry offensively from Victor Martinez, while Carl Crawford has essentially the same skill set as Jacoby Ellsbury, though no one seems willing to admit it.  

No, the thing that will put the Red Sox back into contention isn’t their headline-grabbing offseason, but rather good health from Dustin Pedroia, Ellsbury, J.D. Drew, Mike Cameron, and their Catchers.  Not to mention it would also help if David Ortiz played like David Ortiz in March and April instead of waiting until June as he did in the past two season.  So I wouldn’t count those chickens yet, Sox fans.  The Yankees still have a superior offense, and the argument of which AL East team has the best rotation and defense ould still be won by the Rays.

Houston’s Hot Stove out of Gas?

I know it’s early in the GM Winter Meetings week (it’s Tuesday), but I can’t help but wonder – has Houston’s Hot Stove gone cold?
I don’t expect the Astros to make a huge splashy move or anything, but the reliable people at http://www.mlbrumors.com/ have reported nothing from the rumor mill AT ALL for the space city sluggers.
A few possible reasons:
  1. Ed Wade’s staff is exceptionally good at keeping things under wraps:  If this is the case, I applaud.  If at the end of the week the Astros have made several ‘surprise’ moves, then I will assume this reason to be correct, and publicly approve.
  2. The pending sale of the club has put the kibosh on anything from happening at all, a la the 2009-2010 Dodgers under the dark cloud of divorce.  Gosh, I hope this isn’t the case.
  3. Media bias:  Not in a negative, “we hate everybody not on the coasts” type of way.  But let’s face reality.  National media outlets headquarter in New York, Chicago, and LA.  Everything else in the flyover areas are bound to get less attention than the coasts and Chicago.  Here are the teams we have heard the MOST about this offseason:  New York (Yankees), New York (Mets), Chicago (White Sox), Chicago (Cubs), Baltimore, Washington, Boston, Los Angeles (Dodgers), Pittsburgh (why??), Philadelphia.  Arizona and San Diego have been mentioned only in the context of the massive trades they pulled off on Day 1 of the Winter meetings.  What do these cities have in common?  They have in common the 250-mile radii around New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago.  St. Louis picked up a perennial all-star (albeit with a recently tarnished rep) and the media barely warrants a mention.
I’m really hoping the reasons are a combination of #1 and #3.  As a baseball fan, reason #2 is inexcusable and irritating.
Speaking of Hot Stove, here’s my suggestions, Astros:
  1. Get J.J. Hardy.  He won’t be expensive, and as tarnished as his reputation is, he’s an upgrade over everything you rolled out at short in 2010.  Barmes at 2nd, Hardy at Short.  It’s not a long-term solution, but it’s an improvement.
  2. Kick the tires on Russell Martin.  Why not?  See what the price is, it’s a high-reward gamble.  He can move around other positions, and Castro’s bat just isn’t potent.
  3. Get in on the Brandon Webb/Justin Duchscherer/Rich Harden sweepstakes.  They won’t be expensive, but any of them can help your team if healthy.  They know how to pitch and how to excel – is it any worse than the gamble taken on Myers?  Cheap lightning in that bottle.  Do it.
  4. Andrew Miller.  Too much potential and talent there to not inquire.  If he can’t cut it as a starter, he’s a lot better middle relief option than anything you have.  Pay him like a 6th starter with incentives and see what happens.
  5. Don’t sign Matt Diaz.  Please?   Instead, inquire about Jeremy Hermida, Bill Hall, Josh Willingham, or somebody else with at least one year of substantive success.  If you aren’t going to spend, go with the high-reward players even if the risk is high.  Got anything to lose? It’s not like you’ll be doing a long-term deal with them.  Don’t get so hung up on a left-handed bat.  Take a good player, regardless of their handedness.  
  6. Lastings Milledge.  He’s 25 or 26.  Top-50 prospect.  Why not?  Or Elijah Dukes.  I bet he’s cheap.

(more…)

Barmes / Paulino Trade Analysis

Yesterday, the Astros traded their resident tease Felipe Paulino for career utility-infielder Clint Barmes of the Colorado Rockies.  A first reaction of disgust that the Astros traded a power pitcher for a backup infielder on the wrong side of 30 had to be tempered as reason set in a little.
Let’s give credit to Astros GM Ed Wade for trying to play the game while dealt a crummy hand.  The fact is, the Astros have no significant trading pieces and Paulino wore out his welcome in Houston long ago.  Is Barmes going to be Chase Utley or Robinson Cano?  No.  But he is an upgrade over any player the Astros currently brandish in their middle infield.  Unfortunately, that is more a commentary on the Astros’ middle infield than it is a compliment to Barmes.  Still, it is an improvement.  Paulino was at a dead-end in Houston.  Starters that throw in the upper-90′s don’t exactly grow on trees, but his lack of control and inability to stay healthy only served to make fans and teammates dream about what could have been, had he only learned to pitch.  Effectively, Wade turned his nothing into a something, and there’s a lot to be said for that even if the payback is not as glamorous as the fans would like.
So how does this trade impact the 2011 Astros?  They now have Barmes, Jeff Keppinger, Angel Sanchez, and Tommy Manzella patrolling the infield.  This collection of players have an unusual mix (and lack) of talents that should give manager Brad Mills some interesting shuffling options.
Jeff Keppinger:
Keppinger is a singles hitter who finds most success facing lefties while sometimes struggling against right-handers.  He has a fantastic contact rate, and his K/AB ratio of about 8% is one of the best in baseball.  Going by Total Zone fielding runs above average, Keppenger is a slightly-above-average defensive 2B, but worse than your average SS.
Angel Sanchez:
Sanchez is also a singles hitter, only without Keppinger’s good contact rates.  He does not have high strikeout rates, but poor contact and pitch recognition lowers his batting average.  Astros fans remember a few clutch hits from 2010 when he sat in for Manzella, but they were fooled by enthusiasm.  He actually hit quite poorly in 2010, with a 277/312/344 slash line (Avg/OBP/SLG).  To add salt to the gaping wound, defensive metrics rated him terribly.  TZ finds that he is actually hurting the Astros defensively to the tune of 10 runs year worse than an average defensive shortstop.  He’s a bench player with no defensive home.
Tommy Manzella:
Remember the hype that Astros brass tried to generate for this guy going into 2010?  One glimpse at his minor-league stats dropped an a-bomb of reality on any sort of high expectation.  He’s not young for a prospect, as he will be 28 this season, and he’s never hit at any level.  His reputation as a defensive wizard took a hit too, as his TZ rating was even worse than Sanchez’ in 2010, at 11 runs worse than the average shortstop.  Small sample size applies here though, as injury affected his play.  His reputation as a good defender at short should keep him on the roster as a late-inning replacement.  Just don’t expect him to hit the ball with anything smaller than a tennis racket.
Clint Barmes:
One thing Barmes actually does do well is defend the tough infield positions.  TZ rates him at +13 runs/year at short, +11 runs/year at 2B, and +21 runs/year at 3B over the course of his career.  He has a career 440 Slugging %, giving him more pop than any of the options listed above, which is good.  He does not strike out at an alarming rate.  However, he is completely inept at taking a walk (much like the rest of the lineup), and as a result his career OBP of .300 actually takes the Astros backwards in the area they most struggled with.  The Astros just don’t get on base….near the bottom in the league in 2010, and Barmes is terrible at it.  But the biggest thing that should concern a fan about Barmes is his Home/Road splits.  He has spent his whole career in the most offensively-inflating environment, Coors Field in Colorado.  He hit a somewhat respectable 285/335/458 in the thin air a mile above sea level.  Alas, once he left the snowy state of skiing and animal-rights activism, his career line drops to a Tommy Manzella-ish 224/256/352.  This is so far below average for a major league baseball player that clever metaphors can’t even be made about it.

This trade works for me if any several of the following are true…

  • The Astros sign a veteran 4th or 5th starter to replace Nelson Figueroa.  Paulino as a 5th starter was much more palatable.
  • Barmes plays primarily shortstop.  His weak stick at 2B would compound the problem of a weaker stick at SS.
  • The Astros sign or trade for a legitimate 2nd-baseman.  I’d call Seattle and ask about a price for Jose Lopez, whose star has dimmed due to a lousy 2010.
This trade does not work for me if…
  • Nelson Figueroa is the opening-day 4th or 5th starter
  • Barmes plays 2nd Base and the Astros open with Manzella or Sanchez at short.
  • Brett Wallace and Jason Castro do not learn how to hit a major-league baseball.
In conclusion, the only place this trade really helps the Astros is infield defense.  There is no long-term financial commitment here, and the price of Felipe Paulino was negligible to the club.  So give Wade small props for at least getting something for his nothing.  The odds are against it, but sometimes you can win a hand with a pair of Jacks.  Unfortunately for Houstonians, Ed Wade is very low on chips to gamble with.

Following up…

Following up on my last article, titled “Worst Team Ever?”, comparing the 2010 Houston Astros to the 1962 New York Mets, one statistic stood out like a walnut in a peanut factory:  Base-on-Balls.

Quickly, I need to point out that my numbers in the previous article were completely wrong and will be corrected when I get the urge.  The Astros are currently on pace 287.4 walks in 2010, which is much better than the 60 I projected earlier.  I’m not sure where I got that number from, but I apologize to the Astros if any of them curled up in despair upon reading my widely-circulated blog (hah!).
So.  287.4 walks.  This number is still over 300 less than the miserable 1962 mets, so there is no use looking for silver lining.  But is walking so little really such a bad thing?
YES
From the handy BaseballAlmanac.com, I found that the record for the least number of Bases-on-Balls for a season is held by the 1908 St. Louis Cardinals.  Hooray!  The 2010 Astros are not on pace to be last in history!

Not so fast, Jack.  Or Drayton.  1908 was the low point of the so-called Dead Ball Era of major league baseball, when run scoring was down to its lowest point in history.  Indeed, run scoring hit the polar opposite of it’s zenith–it’s htinez–in 1908 due to the confluence of poor balls, large park dimensions, the spitball, and a mound that was five inches higher than it is today, giving further downward oomph to fast-flung yarn and leather.  In 1908 the regular season was 154 games long, whereas today it is 162.  Quick math extrapolates the 1908 Cardinals’ BB total to 297 over 162 games.  If you are paying attention at home, that is more than the current pace the Astros are on.

So to summarize:

The Astros are on pace to rival the team with the lowest BB total in the history of the game, a team that played during the lowest run-scoring environment in history, and in fewer games.

A caveat though:  The Astros drew 448 walks in 2009, which is still 15th of 16 in the National League, but a good bit higher than their current pace.  They have replaced notoriously BB-repellent Miguel Tejada with pieces that are more offensively inept overall, but no worse at talking a free pass.  Lance Berkman has averaged almost 100 walks per season by his lonesome over his career, and it should be noted that he has missed most of the season and Spring Training to this point.  He could bring the walk total up to around 400 by himself with no change elsewhere.

But that’s not good enough for a cognizant Astros fan.  On-Base-Percentage is in vogue.  It is the poster child statistic for the now over-referenced Moneyball.  This refusal to take a walk, coupled with free-swinging tendencies and a poor contact rate has doomed the team to producing at a literally historic low.  This is not writing in superlatives, the Astros really are on pace to set some miserable records.  Something must be done — players must be replaced, as this is not a coaching issue anymore, if it ever was.

Worst Team EVER?

Are the 2010 Astros on their way to being the worst offense ever?  Not likely, but let’s take a look at April and early May and see how they stack up to the team that is generally regarded as the most futile team to pick up a stick since the game expanded to a 162-game season:  The 1962 Mets.

Obviously, there are issues in comparison here.  Players are different, conditioning is different, and playing philosophies differ.  It’s still a fun exercise.

Below is a chart showing some offensive statistics for the ’62 Mets, the ’10 Astros, and the ’10 Astros projected out to 161 games.

Untitled.jpg

So at this pace, the 2010 Astros figure to score about 75% of the number of runs, 10% of the number of walks, strike out more, hit a third as many homers, with weaker rate stats all the way around as the WORST TEAM IN THE HISTORY OF MODERN BASEBALL.

All this with a team that is on average a year and a half older than the Amazing Mess of 1962.  A few points to be made:

1)  Several of the Astros hitters have a low BABIPs (or is that BAsBIP?).  Without going into the details, this means they’ve been terribly unlucky and improvements can be reasonably expected.
2)  The Astros pitching is much better than the 1962 Mets.  Not a lot of danger of this team losing 120 games.
3)  The 1962 Mets set their record in futility in the first year of their existence.  No such excuse for the Astros.  Ouch.
4)  The NL Central is horrible.  The Mets had to play their whole season vs a league in which 7 of the 10 teams were over .500 for the season.

The 2010 Astros are terrible.  Reference my previous post, Drayton, Please Don’t Buy the Hype!, in which I cry to the heavens that the Astros’ mid-2009 record was smoke-and-mirrors.  The Astros’ disastrous 2010 season is the direct result of management ignoring the warning signs of the past couple of seasons.

Please remove the Comments from MLB.com team pages!

Names have been removed to protect the ignorant.

I hate “Comments” on web stories and blogs.  I say that as somebody who enjoys commenting on web stories and blogs.  Comments are a way for the little guy (often literally a 12-year-old with too much free time) to see his own words in permanent ‘ink’ on a legitimate multi-national web site.
You have several different types of posters.  Below are actual posts taken from MLB.com, faithfully copied-and-pasted in unaltered Arial font.
The Grammasite:
Grammasites are parasites that suck the punctuation, capitalization, and tenses out of a sentence to render it completely devoid of meaning.  
Example:  ”Berkman wont do anything the marlins are going to wreak the astros its going to be a blow out”
Grammasite commentors possibly provide the least value to a Comment Board.  They are hard to understand, there is no statistical argument, they are not even entertaining in a vaguely crude way.
The Rambler:
Ramblers begin their comment on topic and rapidly diverge off on a wild tangent that has nothing to do with anything in the article, or anything that anybody else has previously posted about.
Example:  ”Well, now I guess we know where [Volquez'] 21-8 record came from. The temptation to cheat for someone starting out must be immense. It is the difference between washing cars in your uncle’s car wash or getting paid millions a year. The players who got huge contracts based on their Roid usage should give back the money if they are truly sorry. Jason Giambi is the best case of this. He defrauded the Yankees and then said sorry but never made amends. I have no respect for him as a man or as an athlete. He is a liar and a thief. He also stole from the pitchers he belted all those Roid-Runs off … He should also give back the MVP trophy.”
Somehow in this example, the Rambler has turned Volquez’ 50-game PED suspension into what he/she believes is a valid argument for Giambi to give back his MVP trophy.  Somewhere, sadly, this makes sense to somebody.
The Flamer:
The Flamer lives for taking people down a few pegs, deserved or not.  His mission in life is to make up for his own dorkitude by showing everybody how cool he is in the classic schoolyard playground method:  slinging mud.
Example:  ”You’re an idiot, Marinersfan. That’s all I’ve got.”
This commenter may be entirely correct.  That doesn’t make him any less stupid for wasting time out of his day to make this post.  Would it have killed him to ignore?  If you are a Flamer, then yes, it likely would.
The Repeater:
The Repeater thinks that what he has to say is so stinking funny/insightful that he has to post it multiple times.  Sometimes the Repeater submits twice because he just plain fails at the internet, but oftentimes this is the obnoxious kid that says things over and over until somebody acknowledges his existence with either a half-hearted chuckle or a punch in the face.
Example: “I hope in the coming years he does not Choo. LOL (4/20/2010 4:11:15 PM)
I hope in the coming years he does not Choo. LOL (4/20/2010 4:10:39 PM)
I hope in the coming years he does not Choo. LOL (4/20/2010 4:10:10 PM)
I hope in the coming years he does not Choo. LOL (4/20/2010 4:08:56 PM)
I hope in the coming years he does not Choo. LOL (4/20/2010 4:05:17 PM)
I hope in the coming years he does not Choo. LOL (4/20/2010 4:04:04 PM)
I hope in the coming years he does not Choo. LOL (4/20/2010 4:03:20 PM)”
There is no cure for being a Repeater, other than to be repeatedly punched in the face.
The Know-it-All:
The know it all uses what he perceives to be his superior grasp of strategy, knowledge, linguistic skills, and relativistic quantum theory to enlighten the masses of people who are craving for him to explain Life, the Universe, and Everything, so that it all becomes clear in one blinding flash of insight encapsulated in a lengthy message board comment on a public web site.
Example:  ”CH Park was exempted when S. Korea Won in Bangkok 12 yrs ago and I am sure Dodgers fans loved it when that happened. In Asian game, there will be about 8 teams participate in Baseball BUT Only 3 teams has realistic shot of winning the gold.. Japan, Korea, Taiwan.. However even Korea don’t win the gold, I have feeling that Choo will get exempted for service and do other things to replace that service.. It is not common for healthy Koreans to get these previllage treatment BUT gov’t don’t want to get in to heated argument with citizens as well.. Usually Koreans treat this issue very harshly and there is no way out HOWEVER Choo situation is different, He already won 2nd place in WBC (1st WBC, all players got exempted with advance to Semi).. and latest poll suggested overwhelming people support Choo’s exemption which is very uncommon things.. Some said they will replace him and go to Military one more and Some said he can get US Citizen and noone should blame for that…”
About two sentences in, most readers have already moved on.  The Know-It-All is sadly unaware that nobody reads his crap, and those who do are Flamers looking for an easy target, or quadriplegics with their eyeballs taped open in front of their screen in some cruel psychology experiment measuring the effect of obnoxious people on captive audiences.
The Harbinger:
The Harbinger (of Doom) is the commentor who wants everybody to know exactly how bleak the situation is for their own team.  There is no hope in this person’s life, everything is a dull, dark, throbbing ache of despair.  They relieve pressure on this well of glumness like a fart in a crowded elevator.
Example:  ”The Indians can’t win; either they sign choo and he becomes another Hafner contract that they can’t afford or get rid of, or they don’t sign him and he goes on to rake elsewhere (thome, manny, belle, etc.)”
The Harbinger usually forgets his own predictions when things do not turn out quite as dismally as feared.
The Comedian:
The comedian really isn’t funny.  Who ever really i
s, when the end-all-be-all of their existence is to comment on a story by the associated press and think anybody cares?  They do try their hardest though.
Example:  ”I would trade [Dave Trembley] for vagisil, toothpicks, a rib eye steak, and a pair od BG’s moms fat pants.“
For the record, nobody responded to this particular example, nor should they.  Besides, if you got a Rib Eye for Trembley, you’re getting a bargain.  Can’t beat a good steak.  And BG’s mom isn’t that fat.
The Statwhore:
The Statwhore is a god of baseball.  A titan among lesser men.  He will blind (or confuse) you with stats the HE AND NOBODY ELSE knows (except for Baseball Reference, MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus, Wikipedia, etc.). 
Example:  ”Remember Izturis’s Contract, i don’t believe he is going anywhere. I hope i am wrong. I agree with belanger7, and u too Talent. It would be a shame to see Andino go:(4/2/2010 5:34:39 PM – Andino, .969 career fielding%, career 213 hitter, .264OBP. Yup! Glad he’s still around! In AAA he’s hitting 268 with no walks. Izzy, .980 Career fielding%, career 259 hitter, 298OBP 14HR & 262RBI-Yup! Andino can’t hit as well in AAA or field as well in AAA but let’s get rid of the better player & keep the worse player. Didn’t u say in one of ur posts just the opposite, play the best players?”
What, oh what, I cry to the heavens, will I have done had I lived my life without knowledge of Andino’s career fielding percentage?  Thankfully, Statwhores sometimes spontaneously combust from their own perceived awesomeness.  Statwhores are usually also Know-It-Alls, but the reverse is not always true.
—–
Indignant commentors may ask me (or comment) what right a blogger (using the term very loosely in my case as I suck at it and rarely post) has to criticize them.  The answer is, “Absolutely none!” but luckily, I don’t care what you think, because now my blog has given you something new to comment on and thus fulfill your useless life with an outlet for what you crave:  attention.

Top 10 Reasons Elijah Dukes was Released…

**Excerpts from a Press Conference on Wednesday, March 17, 2010 by Mike Rizzo, GM of the Washington Nationals…a Press Conference that never took place, but should have**

 

Mike Rizzo’s Top 10 reasons that Elijah Dukes was released from the Washington Nationals:

 

10.  “The players took a confidential vote and unanimously decided Elijah is a total d0uchebag.”

 

9.  “An 8-year-old fan asked Elijah for an autograph, and he got one.  On his face.  With a knife.”

 

8.  “We offered to trade Elijah for Milton Bradley, but the Cubs wanted to improve the clubhouse atmosphere.”

 

7.  “We thought that Willie Harris, Justin Maxwell, Mike Morse, Roger Bernardina, and especially Willy Taveras give us a greater chance to have a successful ballclub” (ouch!)

 

6. “Even Adam Dunn thought he was a tool, and Adam Dunn likes everyone, so we had to release him.”

 

5.  “When Morgan encroached into Right Field, he was told, ‘keep out or I will bust a cap in yo’ ***** ***.’”

 

4.  “Today is St. Patrick’s Day…and he didn’t wear green.”

 

3.  “Elijah was not the droid we were looking for.”

 

2.  “Elijah was told to report to the District of Columbia, and he showed up in South America .” 

 

1.  “He looked at Strasburg funny, so he just had to go.”

 

 

Thanks to Eric for the contributions, especially #1

Astros Bring back a stud pitcher…

The Astros excercised their option on Brian Moehler this week for the 2010 season.

Astros GM Ed Wade says, “He’s a solid pitcher whose value doesn’t always show up in the numbers. He keeps you in games and gives you a chance to win. And, because of his makeup and work ethic, he’s a great example for our young pitchers.”

Moehler with the Astros:
2007:  59.2 IP, 4.07 ERA 1.41 WHIP (Walks+Hits per Inning Pitched)
2008:  150.0 IP, 4.56 ERA 1.35 WHIP
2009:  154.2 IP, 5.47 ERA, 1.54 WHIP

over the past 3 years, Moehler’s ERA has increased an average of 0.70 runs.  His WHIP has increased an average of 0.065.  Following this trend, his 2010 numbers project to

2010:  150 IP, 6.17 ERA, 1.61 WHIP

Hey Astros, how about finding a solid pitcher whose value DOES show up in the numbers?

Over this period, Moehler’s WARP1 (Wins Over Replacement Player), or essentially, how many “Wins” the player is worth to a team when compared to the number of Wins a “Replacement Level” player is worth, has gone from 1.4 to 1.2 to .1

If this trend continues, Moehler projects to be worth NEGATIVE wins (or Losses, if you will) than the Average bench-quality player.

So Moehler figures to COST the Astros wins next season, rather than adding to them.

Do some research, Astros.  A good clubhouse guy who actually makes your team WORSE is not worth 3 mil..

Quick Follow Up:  In 2007, Moehler was a RELIEVER.  His decline in performance between 2008 and 2009 has been a much grosser drop-off when not taking 2007 into consideration.  I’m trying to give him benefit of the doubt by even mentioning 2007 numbers.

Cecil Cooper was Framed!!

On September 21st, Manager Cecil Cooper of the Houston Astros was relieved of his command, despite his contract extension for 2010.  (aside:  Who wouldn’t mind sitting at home and watching baseball in the air conditioning for a couple mil?)

Cooper is being used as a scapegoat – a proverbial donkey to pin the tail on – for the fans, media, and those within the organization who can not look at things objectively.  Cooper’s Win/Loss record (above .500) is irrelevant.  He inherited an old team with budget problems and a history of poor front-office management and poor player development.  You play the hand you’re dealt – and sometimes you cash out early.  One can’t help but think that this move is being made to pull the wool over the eyes of the fans:  ”Look, we are making changes!  See, we will be better now!  Please buy some tickets / merchandise / twelve dollar beers!“
The fact is, the Astros personnel is terrible, filled with veterans not worth their enormous immovable contracts, below-replacement-level fill-ins, budget-conscious recycling projects, fringe major leaguers, and “Quad-A” prospects. On the 2009 team, only Wandy Rodriguez and Michael Bourn looked like they belonged on a contender’s major-league roster in 2009.
The maligned pitching staff?  
(Oswalt, Rodriguez, Moehler, Hampton, Paulino, Ortiz, Norris, Bazardo, and Backe)
  • ERA: 19th in the majors (4.42)
  • Starter ERA:  4.67 (5.20 without Rodriguez)
  • Strikeouts:  12th
  • Walks: 18th
  • WHIP (Walks+Hits per IP):  22nd
The Woeful Defense?
  • Defensive Efficiency:  26th in the majors (0.680)  
So only 68% of the balls put into play are converted to outs by the Astros.
The Wimpy Hitting?
  • AB:  28th (5571) – the Astros just aren’t moving through the lineup!
  • R: 25th (602)
  • H: 19th tie (1311)
  • 2B:  26th (249)
  • HR:  26th (130)…the Yankees and Phillies have almost double this number
  • RBI:  25th (576)
  • BB:  27th (431)…and this includes 89 by Berkman, who despite missing almost a month is still 11th in the majors in walks.  Berkman accounts for 21.2% of the Astros’ walks.  Suffice to say, with a league average “walker” at 1B, the Astros would likely be dead last in BB.
To add insult to injury, the Astros only have three left-handed hitters, 29th in the majors, making it easy for an opposing manager to game-plan for a right-handed-heavy lineup.
But wait! – one says – Isn’t it the job of the Manager to address these shortcomings?  
In the case of the Astros, the answer is a resounding NO.  Other than the Phillies, whose average is brought up by Jamie Moyer, the Astros are the oldest team in the league at 29.5 years old.  This means that the Astros roster is composed almost entirely of veterans who have been around a while, are set in their ways, hit a certain way, field a certain way, go about preparing for a game a certain way, and by-and-large are un-coach-able.
How exactly should Cooper approach Tejada and suggest to the one-time MVP that he is perhaps struggling and should try a certain method to fix a problem when Tejada may not even agree that a problem exists?
How should Cooper or his staff offer mechanical advice to Oswalt, Hampton, Ortiz, Moehler, Hawkins, and Brocail, whose combined age is 219 years old?
[Side-Tracked Rant]:
Unfortunately, some fans who seem to realize that Cooper is the victim of circumstance somehow believe that this is all GM Ed Wade’s fault?  How is this so?  He has virtually no players in the Astros, in AAA, or in AA after only a season and a half on the job.  The players he has traded away have been no better than replacement-level for their new teams, except for Luke Scott and Chad Qualls.  No self-respecting honest Astros fan should say that Taveras-Scott would be an improvement over Bourn-Pence.  And that same fan would not say that Valverde is a step down from Qualls.  GM’s need more than a couple seasons to show the fruits of their labors – rotten or otherwise, and the jury is still out on Wades tenure with the Astros.[/rant]
Astros fans need somebody to blame, and the Astros have appeased them by burning Cecil Cooper at the stake.
So who really is to blame?  Nobody specifically.  For years prior to 2007, under the post-Hunsicker regime, the Astros farm system has crumbled to dust, the Astros have under-spent on the draft, given out huge and un-movable contracts to players who (while still retaining good tools) were past their peak.
Suck it up, Astros fans.  This isn’t Cooper’s fault, and it isn’t Wade’s fault.  Blame the owner if you must, because ultimate blame falls the same place as the buck stops.  But the reality is the losing will continue until player development improves, more money is spent on scouting, and money is freed up by moving some huge contracts.  Wade is on the right track in the player-development department, with some high-ceiling players in the low minors, but Astros fans will need to be patient at this point.
[edit 9/22]
It’s been reported that Cooper “lost the clubhouse” and that is the main reason he was let go before the end of the 2009 season.  This explains the move better than any blame about his shortcomings as a strategist or coach.  That doesn’t make it right though.  If the players truly think that this dismal season is the result of a poor manager, perhaps they should look themselves in the mirror and ask if they truly gave Cooper their best work.  Would Cooper have “lost the clubhouse” if the Astros were in a playoff hunt and well over the .500 mark?  Common sense says that no, the players would be buying into Cooper’s leadership and more willing to overlook some of the mistakes that make him a regular person.  But the players needed a target for their blame and guilt, and Cooper was a convenient target that they could all rally together and point to.  It’s a real shame that men being paid ten times Cooper’s salary can be so petty and not take responsibility for their own shortcomings.

Who’s Your Favorite non-Home team?

I am a fan of the Houston Astros, please do not mock me.  As a baseball fan, I find myself drawn to certain other teams for different interesting reasons, and those teams are usually younger, athletic, and interesting.  

Last year I was on the Rays bandwagon even before the season.  Granted I predicted them to be irrelevant until 2009 or 2010, but they still intrigued me.  They had a strong young pitching staff, headlined by the then-unheralded and dependable James Shields and the immensely-gifted but unpredictable Scott Kazmir, a home-town Houston guy who played with a buddy of mine in High School.  They had an explosive bullpen (none of these pitch-to-contact guys).  Speed in Upton, Internationality in Iwamura, ridiculous uncontrolled power in the oft-recycled Pena, hugely-hyped prospects Longoria and Price, and a crazy manager.
This year they interest me in the casual sense, but not like they did last season.  This season, there are a couple teams that really draw my attention because they look like they could explode into the “real deal” next season.
My current favorite is the (don’t laugh) Arizona Diamondbacks.
Who will be their 2010 starters:
C:  Miguel Montero – Power, Avg, OPS from a catcher?  Nice.  Time split with Chris Snyder, who is all power, no patience.  It’s like a Mathis/Napoli situation.  You could do worse.
1B:  Conor Jackson / Chad Tracy / Brandon Allen – Take your pick.  When healthy, Jackson and Tracy have proved themselves to be solid above-average major leaguers.
2B:  Ryan Roberts – There is nothing really exciting at 2B, since Roberts current major league stats are way above his minor league numbers.  Could a solution be Jackson, Tracy, or Allen?
3B:  Mark Reynolds – Quite possibly the most unexplainable superstar in baseball
SS:  Stephen Drew.  No breakout this season because of injury.  If he follows a different route than brother JD, he should blossom in 2010.  
OF:  Justin Upton, Eric Byrnes, Jackson, Chris Young, Romero, etc. – Justin Upton may be my favorite player in the majors right now.  308/380/556 and he just turned 22 last week.  I can’t wait.  Other shortcomings in the OF are easily fixable in the offseason.  Young is not too old to fix bad habits, and still plays great defense.
Rotation:  Webb, Haren, Garland, Davis, Scherzer – no reason this can’t be one of the best rotations in the majors.  Healthy Webb, plus a predictable improvement from Scherzer would make the a near-unbeatable playoff 1-2-3.
Bullpen:  The pen needs help.  It can be fixed.
Hot Prospects for 2010:  Jarrod Parker (Perhaps a bullpen callup, and worked into the rotation as he proves he can stay healthy.  One of the most exciting pitchers in the minors).  Gerardo Parra is currently in the majors, although I expect him in AAA at the beginning of 2010 with the other OFs being healthier.  He could make an impact if the Dbacks are able to fob Byrnes off on some sucker.
Anyway, other interesting teams for 2010 and beyond:  Giants, Nationals, O’s, Jays
Going the wrong way:  Astros, Brewers, Indians, A’s, Mariners, Cubs
Holding steady in mediocrity or worse:  Reds, Pirates, Royals
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